Every national leader, scored across up to eight dimensions of tenure contribution — from governance and economy to politics and crisis response. Compare current form against the legacy they'll leave behind.
SourceWorld Bank + derivedMethodWeighted averageConfMedium✓ ReconstructableⓘLeadership Rating measures change under the leader relative to global trends — a score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory. It is a weighted average of up to eight dimensions, renormalised over the ones with sourced data (the coverage note beside the score says how many), and requires all four core dimensions — Governance, Economy, Politics and Institutional Integrity — to be sourced. Five use live World Bank indicators; the rest are derived from sourced signals (WIPO/Oxford/UNESCO, GDELT, World Bank + UCDP, survey data) where coverage exists. Diplomacy has no source yet, and anything unsourced shows as no data. Political position is V-Dem V-Party expert coding. Full weights on the Methodology page.
A note when the record changes — and when a prediction resolves. Free.
Andy Burnham, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has no composite Leadership score yet — too few dimensions have sourced data to compute one. Their standout dimension is Institutional Integrity (95/100). The pressure to watch: Weak Stability Trend — Stability Trend of 42 indicates that the recent direction is a material pressure even when the broader stability level remains stronger.
The data & sources
Andy Burnham carries no composite rating: too few dimensions have sourced data, so it renders as "No data" rather than a filled-in guess. Diplomatic Conduct — no country-level data; shown as "No data" rather than inferred. Governing-stability conditions score 76/100, renormalised over WGI, V-Dem and UCDP.
The risk read
For country-risk purposes, Andy Burnham's tenure reads as broadly stable: governing-stability conditions score 76/100. Crisis exposure 0/100 (Minimal exposure); response untested. For the full opportunity, market-pulse and resilience read, see the United Kingdom's nation page.
The strategic read
Governing conditions: stability 76/100. Live pressures: weak stability trend.
Analyst OutlookAI · not a sourced score
claude-fable-5 · 2026-08-24
Cited, adversarially-verified forward analysis — every claim is sourced and survived a red-team. An LLM intelligence brief, not a sourced score, and never blended into this leader's ratings.
Burnham took power without a contest and has one afternoon — the November Budget — to prove 'hope' survives 5% gilts; his real opposition wears green, not Reform teal.
The Consensus
A caretaker crowned without a contest: the pundit read is that Burnham inherited a doomed project after Labour's record local-election wipeout, will soften the tone and steady the ship, but cannot out-run Farage's Reform or deliver visible change before an election voters expect within three years — Starmer with better retail politics.
Chancellor John Healey's first Budget raises taxes on assets — capital gains, inheritance or property/land-value measures — while keeping the manifesto lock on income tax, VAT and National Insurance rates, and the gilt market absorbs it: no new 2026 high in the 10-year yield within a month of Budget day.
AI · not a sourced score · claude-fable-5 · 4 cited sources · red-teamed · never blended into ratings
Wrong if the Budget raises the main rates of income tax, employee NI or VAT; if no Budget is delivered by 2026-12-31; or if the 10-year gilt yield sets a new 2026 high within 30 days of Budget day. by 2026-12-31
Confidence73%
Show the caseHide the case
Strongest counter — The hole may be too big for asset-side measures alone: Tax Policy Associates scoped 37 Burnham-compatible measures at only £4.7bn against a gap of up to £11bn, and an Iran-driven energy spike could widen it — forcing either a broken lock or spending cuts. Survives because Burnham publicly re-committed to the lock, his fifteen-year 'tax assets, not labour' record points one direction, and the inherited 0.5% current-deficit allowance plus threshold-freeze-style measures bridge the arithmetic without touching headline rates.
No sourced communication signal yet. This blends GDELT coverage tone, media reach and message resilience — it populates once GDELT indexes enough coverage of this leader.
Diplomatic Conduct
Awaiting data
No sourced diplomatic conduct yet. This proxy blends cooperative ratio, restraint, coalition breadth, agreements, sanctions balance, engagement and media tone — it populates once at least half its inputs are sourced.
Crisis
Exposure
0/ 100
Minimal exposure
Response
Untested
Untested
Low confidence · no major shock in mandate
Worst year (2026) — shock drivers
Conflict intensity0
Each is a global percentile: how this year's shock compares to every country-year on record. Disaster shocks are not yet sourced (no open-licensed annual series).
Sourced from 1 mandate-year (2026–2026), 1 of 4 shock components present.
SourceWorld Bank GDP + UCDP deaths (annual + Candidate GED) + WGI stabilityMethodCountry-year shock severity · peer-relative damage
Country scores are blended with live World Bank data where available. Difficulty reflects the structural challenge of governing this nation — not the leader's individual performance.
Source: World Bank·Method: Unweighted average·✓ Reconstructable
Leadership Archetype
Awaiting data
No archetype yet — not enough sourced stats to classify one. The archetype is derived from the leadership stat profile; it populates once enough dimensions are sourced.
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Key questions
Who is Andy Burnham?
Andy Burnham is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of the United Kingdom, from the Co-operative Party / Labour Party.
What challenges does Andy Burnham face?
The main pressures are weak stability trend. Stability Trend of 42 indicates that the recent direction is a material pressure even when the broader stability level remains stronger.
Data coverage:107 Sourced·85 Derived|Scores refreshed: 2026-09-28·snap-20260928-e5941091|Methodology:Reconstructable|Cite:How to cite
Spot an error?
ConfLow
✓ Reconstructable
ⓘCrisis Exposure measures how severely a leader was tested — a peak-biased aggregate of per-year shock severity (conflict intensity, economic contraction and political-stability decline vs. recent normal) over the mandate. It is context, not a verdict: high exposure is neither good nor bad on its own. Crisis Response measures how the country fared during its genuine crisis years relative to comparable crisis episodes worldwide — country-years hit with the same shock severity. Higher = less national damage than peers at that severity. Leaders who never faced a major shock are marked Untested rather than rewarded. Per country-year, real WB/UCDP/WGI shocks are winsorised and percentile-ranked into a ShockSeverity; Exposure is the peak-biased mandate aggregate. Crisis years (severity ≥ 60) score Response = 100 − damage percentile among comparable-severity crises worldwide, then severity-weighted over the mandate. Untested = no major shock (never rewarded). Absent components are reweighted, never filled.
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Crisis Response
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Vision
—
Communication
—
Institutional Integrity
95
Source: World Bank + derived·Method: Contribution·✓ ReconstructableⓘEach dimension measures change under the leader relative to global trends — how the indicator moved over their tenure, net of the world's move over the same window — not the country's absolute level. A score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory; above = improved the country's standing, below = declined. Governance / Economy / Politics / Institutional Integrity from World Bank WGI, WDI and V-Dem trajectories; Vision from the country's innovation rank (WIPO patents + UNESCO tertiary), former leaders only (patents lag ~3 years); Crisis Response (World Bank + UCDP + WGI, an absolute response-quality scale) and Communication (GDELT) from tenure signals; Diplomacy (Diplomatic Conduct) is active-only. A tenure under six months, or an indicator whose series hasn't reached the term, shows as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Stewardship
Inherited-strength lens · separate from the rating
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Governance
—
Politics
—
Integrity
—
Innovation
—
0 of 4 groups eligible and sourced
Source: World Bank WGI + V-Dem + derived·Method: Stewardship·✓ ReconstructableⓘMeasures whether strong institutions inherited at the start of the tenure were preserved, improved or eroded. It does not reward the leader for inheriting a strong country. A metric qualifies only when the inherited baseline was at least 75 on its normalized scale; the score is the world-net change over the tenure on the single public scale (60 = preserved relative to global movement). Requires two or more eligible sourced groups, the six-month tenure floor and a post-tenure-start observation — otherwise No data, never a zero. Weights mirror the current-form groups (gov 0.17 · pol 0.15 · int 0.08 · vis 0.09), renormalized over what is eligible and sourced.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Top Strengths
Institutional Integrity95
Perceived transparency and anti-corruption track record
Key Weaknesses
Source: Derived·Method: Ranked by stat value·✓ ReconstructableⓘUp to 5 strengths (dimensions scoring 70+) and 5 weaknesses (scoring 57 or below), ranked from the leadership radar. Dimensions in the 58–69 benchmark band appear in neither column. Descriptions are fixed per dimension and don't vary by country. Dimensions without a sourced signal show as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Current Challenges
Weak Stability Trendmedium
Stability Trend of 42 indicates that the recent direction is a material pressure even when the broader stability level remains stronger.
Source: Derived·Method: Rule-based·✓ ReconstructableⓘFlags challenges when a sourced dimension falls below the published benchmark band: any leadership dimension < 58 (severe < 48), Stability < 50, Crisis Exposure > 60, or regime continuity/legitimacy < 40 — plus an adverse Stability Trend, adverse External Conditions, or Severely Constrained / Extreme domestic context. Economy derives from World Bank indicators; Institutional Integrity from V-Dem's executive-corruption index (World Bank Control of Corruption as fallback); Communication from GDELT media reach, tone and resilience; Crisis Exposure and continuity from the stability blend. A low Communication signal can mean thin coverage OR wide-but-hostile coverage — the flag distinguishes the two.
Leadership Conditions
Government Stability
76
Low political violence · Legitimate transfers of power · Strong institutions
ⓘ
Country scores are the unweighted average of scored World Bank indicators — the same model used on the nation's own page. Difficulty reflects structural constraints on governing this nation, independent of the current leader.
External Conditions
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No World Bank data for this tenure period.
Andy Burnham — Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, United Kingdom (2026–present) | NationsHelm
Stability breakdown
Political stability33%70
WGI Political Stability & Absence of Violence
Institutional strength22%77
WGI Rule of Law, Government Effectiveness & Control of Corruption
Continuity & legitimacy17%85
V-Dem political continuity and regime legitimacy
Violence & safety17%100
UCDP organized-violence deaths, population-scaled and inverted — prefers the fresh current-year UCDP-CED reading, else the finalized annual GED
Stability trend
Time in Office 2 months·Since 2026-07
Source: WGI · V-Dem · UCDP · trend·Method: Weighted blend·✓ ReconstructableⓘGovernment Stability blends six sourced signals, renormalised over what's available: WGI Political Stability (30%), institutional strength (20%), V-Dem continuity (15%), UCDP violence deaths (current-year UCDP-CED where available, else finalized annual GED, 15%), Fragile States social cohesion (10%) and the 3-year WGI trend (10%). External Conditions derives from a World Bank GDP-growth shock over the tenure.
