Herzog grants no pardon and no plea deal ends the trial before election day: Netanyahu goes to the 27 October vote as a defendant, with the court sitting five days a week from 4 October — Trump's 'national hero' pressure fails.
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Wrong if President Herzog grants Netanyahu a pardon, or a plea agreement terminating the criminal trial is approved by the court, before 2026-10-27. by 2026-10-27
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Strongest counter — The Attorney General and the State Attorney both agreed to plea talks, Herzog has never said no, and an American president who calls the pardon a matter of national heroism has leverage over an Israeli president in wartime. Survives because the Justice Ministry's own pardons department found the request 'does not meet the standard threshold conditions', Herzog deferred in April and froze mediation in June for lack of any response from Netanyahu, and a defendant who will not admit guilt cannot take the plea the AG offered — the pardon requires a step Netanyahu has refused for nine months.