Every national leader, scored across up to eight dimensions of tenure contribution — from governance and economy to politics and crisis response. Compare current form against the legacy they'll leave behind.
SourceTenure record + derivedMethodWeighted averageConfMedium✓ ReconstructableⓘLegacy Rating is the completed-tenure rating derived from sourced leadership dimensions and the recorded conditions of that tenure — on the published scale a score near 60 means the country broadly matched the benchmark trajectory over the mandate. Anything unsourced shows as no data. Full weights on the Methodology page.
A note the moment a prediction resolves — and when the record changes. Free.
Strongest on economy — sharpest weakness governance.
Briefing
The story
Fernando de Araújo served as President of Timor-Leste. Fernando de Araújo holds a moderate Legacy Rating of 66 out of 100. Their standout dimension is Economy (93/100).
The data & sources
The Legacy Rating of 66 is a derived blend of Fernando de Araújo's leadership dimensions, each computed from sourced public inputs — none estimated. Diplomatic Conduct — no country-level data; shown as "No data" rather than inferred. Governing-stability conditions score 51/100, renormalised over WGI, V-Dem and UCDP.
The risk read
For country-risk purposes, Fernando de Araújo's tenure reads as moderately stable: governing-stability conditions score 51/100. Crisis exposure 0/100 (Minimal exposure); response untested. For the full opportunity, market-pulse and resilience read, see Timor-Leste's nation page.
The strategic read
Governing conditions: stability 51/100. The sharpest institutional vulnerability is Governance (35/100).
Crisis
Exposure
0/ 100
Minimal exposure
Response
Untested
Untested
Low confidence · no major shock in mandate
Worst year (2008) — shock drivers
Economic contraction0
Political-stability decline0
Each is a global percentile: how this year's shock compares to every country-year on record. Disaster shocks are not yet sourced (no open-licensed annual series).
Sourced from 1 mandate-year (2008–2008), 2 of 4 shock components present.
SourceWorld Bank GDP + UCDP deaths (annual + Candidate GED) + WGI stability
Leadership Radar
Tenure Contribution
Polarized profile — 58-point spread from Economy to Governance.
Country scores are blended with live World Bank data where available. Difficulty reflects the structural challenge of governing this nation — not the leader's individual performance.
Source: World Bank·Method: Unweighted average·✓ Reconstructable
Leadership Archetype
No distinct archetype
Polarized profile — 58-point spread from Economy to Governance. No archetype rule matches that shape. This is a reading of the sourced stats — not a data gap.
SourceDerivedMethodRule-based classificationConfDeterministic✓ ReconstructableⓘArchetypes are derived automatically from the leadership stat profile — not hand-assigned. "No distinct archetype" means no classification rule matched; profile shape is assessed separately from the best-to-worst spread. A leader lacking enough sourced stats reads as "No data". A secondary archetype is added only when a stat scores exceptionally high.
Political Legacy
Legacy Rating
66
Assessment
MixedDerivedDerived from the published Legacy Rating band — ≥84 Transformational · 72–83 Lasting · 60–71 Mixed · 42–59 Contested · <42 Negative.
Years Served
0
Peak Strengths
Economy93
Politics72
Relative Weaknesses
Governance35
Post-Office Metrics
Macro Tailwind/Headwind Adjustment
—
External conditions during tenure
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Key questions
Who is Fernando de Araújo?
Fernando de Araújo is a former President of Timor-Leste.
How is Fernando de Araújo rated on NationsHelm?
Fernando de Araújo holds a moderate Legacy Rating of 66 out of 100. It is a derived blend of sourced leadership dimensions — governance, communication, diplomacy and others — never an estimate.
What are Fernando de Araújo's strengths and weaknesses?
Fernando de Araújo's strongest leadership dimension is Economy (93/100); the weakest is Governance (35/100), ranked from the leadership radar.
Data coverage:107 Sourced·85 Derived|Scores refreshed: 2026-09-28·snap-20260928-e5941091|Methodology:Reconstructable|Cite:How to cite
ⓘCrisis Exposure measures how severely a leader was tested — a peak-biased aggregate of per-year shock severity (conflict intensity, economic contraction and political-stability decline vs. recent normal) over the mandate. It is context, not a verdict: high exposure is neither good nor bad on its own. Crisis Response measures how the country fared during its genuine crisis years relative to comparable crisis episodes worldwide — country-years hit with the same shock severity. Higher = less national damage than peers at that severity. Leaders who never faced a major shock are marked Untested rather than rewarded. Per country-year, real WB/UCDP/WGI shocks are winsorised and percentile-ranked into a ShockSeverity; Exposure is the peak-biased mandate aggregate. Crisis years (severity ≥ 60) score Response = 100 − damage percentile among comparable-severity crises worldwide, then severity-weighted over the mandate. Untested = no major shock (never rewarded). Absent components are reweighted, never filled.
Politics
72
Crisis Response
—
Vision
60
Communication
—
Institutional Integrity
62
Source: World Bank + derived·Method: Contribution·✓ ReconstructableⓘEach dimension measures change under the leader relative to global trends — how the indicator moved over their tenure, net of the world's move over the same window — not the country's absolute level. A score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory; above = improved the country's standing, below = declined. Governance / Economy / Politics / Institutional Integrity from World Bank WGI, WDI and V-Dem trajectories; Vision from the country's innovation rank (WIPO patents + UNESCO tertiary), former leaders only (patents lag ~3 years); Crisis Response (World Bank + UCDP + WGI, an absolute response-quality scale) and Communication (GDELT) from tenure signals; Diplomacy (Diplomatic Conduct) is active-only. A tenure under six months, or an indicator whose series hasn't reached the term, shows as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Top Strengths
Economy93
Economic stewardship, growth, and macro stability
Politics72
Political coalition-building and governability
Key Weaknesses
Governance35
State management and policy execution capacity
Source: Derived·Method: Ranked by stat value·✓ Reconstructable
ⓘ
Country scores are the unweighted average of scored World Bank indicators — the same model used on the nation's own page. Difficulty reflects structural constraints on governing this nation, independent of the current leader.
ⓘUp to 5 strengths (dimensions scoring 70+) and 5 weaknesses (scoring 57 or below), ranked from the leadership radar. Dimensions in the 58–69 benchmark band appear in neither column. Descriptions are fixed per dimension and don't vary by country. Dimensions without a sourced signal show as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Fernando de Araújo Legacy Rating: 66/100 — President, Timor-Leste (2008–2008) | NationsHelm