Every national leader, scored across up to eight dimensions of tenure contribution — from governance and economy to politics and crisis response. Compare current form against the legacy they'll leave behind.
Keir Starmer served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Keir Starmer holds a moderate Legacy Rating of 59 out of 100. In global media, their Communication signal reads 22/100 (high confidence), tracked from GDELT.
The data & sources
The Legacy Rating of 59 is a derived blend of Keir Starmer's leadership dimensions, each computed from sourced public inputs — none estimated. Communication 22/100 derives from GDELT DOC tone, reach and message resilience (high confidence). Diplomatic Conduct — no country-level data; shown as "No data" rather than inferred. Governing-stability conditions score 73/100, renormalised over WGI, V-Dem and UCDP.
The risk read
For country-risk purposes, Keir Starmer's tenure reads as broadly stable: governing-stability conditions score 73/100. Crisis exposure 12/100 (Minimal exposure); response untested. External conditions score 51/100 — the macro tailwind or headwind behind their tenure. For the full opportunity, market-pulse and resilience read, see the United Kingdom's nation page.
The strategic read
Governing conditions: stability 73/100, external conditions 51/100. The sharpest institutional vulnerability is Communication (22/100).
Analyst OutlookAI · not a sourced score
claude-opus-4-8 · 2026-07-08
Cited, adversarially-verified forward analysis — every claim is sourced and survived a red-team. An LLM intelligence brief, not a sourced score, and never blended into this leader's ratings.
Starmer won the third-largest majority in Labour history and lost the country in twenty-three months: a 174-seat landslide built on the smallest vote share of any winning British government since 1830 was always a sandcastle, and it was Reform UK — not the Conservatives — that kicked it over.
The Consensus
The July 2026 pundit read: Starmer is a failed, uncharismatic technocrat who resigned on 22 June 2026 after a local-election wipeout (Labour ~15% national vote, ~1,500 councillors lost) and a Reform UK surge that pushed him to a record −60 net satisfaction; his premiership was a two-year misfire redeemed by nothing, and Andy Burnham's near-certain coronation is the reset Labour needs to survive. All anchors verified against ≥2 dated sources.
Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street by 30 September 2026, closing a premiership of roughly two years (from 5 July 2024) — among the shortest tenures of any UK Prime Minister who won an outright Commons majority, and the shortest for a Labour PM who did so.
AI · not a sourced score · claude-opus-4-8 · 3 cited sources · red-teamed · never blended into ratings
Wrong if Keir Starmer is still Prime Minister after 2026-09-30. by 2026-09-30
Confidence85%
Show the caseHide the case
Strongest counter — A contested ballot dragging past 1 September, or a caretaker extension through an autumn crisis, could keep Starmer nominally in post beyond September. Survives: he has already resigned, the NEC timetable is set with nominations closing 16 July, and an uncontested outcome installs a successor by mid-July — the modal case is an August handover, comfortably inside the window.
Each is a global percentile: how this year's shock compares to every country-year on record. Disaster shocks are not yet sourced (no open-licensed annual series).
Sourced from 3 mandate-years (2024–2026), 3 of 4 shock components present.
SourceWorld Bank GDP + UCDP deaths (annual + Candidate GED) + WGI stability
Leadership Radar
Tenure Contribution
Polarized profile — 46-point spread from Governance to Communication.
Country scores are blended with live World Bank data where available. Difficulty reflects the structural challenge of governing this nation — not the leader's individual performance.
Source: World Bank·Method: Unweighted average·✓ Reconstructable
Leadership Archetype
No distinct archetype
Polarized profile — 46-point spread from Governance to Communication. No archetype rule matches that shape. This is a reading of the sourced stats — not a data gap.
SourceDerivedMethodRule-based classificationConfDeterministic✓ ReconstructableⓘArchetypes are derived automatically from the leadership stat profile — not hand-assigned. "No distinct archetype" means no classification rule matched; profile shape is assessed separately from the best-to-worst spread. A leader lacking enough sourced stats reads as "No data". A secondary archetype is added only when a stat scores exceptionally high.
Political Legacy
Legacy Rating
59
Assessment
ContestedDerivedDerived from the published Legacy Rating band — ≥84 Transformational · 72–83 Lasting · 60–71 Mixed · 42–59 Contested · <42 Negative.
Years Served
2
Peak Strengths
No dimension scored 70 or above.
Relative Weaknesses
Communication22
Economy49
Post-Office Metrics
Macro Tailwind/Headwind Adjustment
51
External conditions during tenure
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Key questions
Who is Keir Starmer?
Keir Starmer is a former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, from the Labour Party.
How is Keir Starmer rated on NationsHelm?
Keir Starmer holds a moderate Legacy Rating of 59 out of 100. It is a derived blend of sourced leadership dimensions — governance, communication, diplomacy and others — never an estimate.
How is Keir Starmer viewed internationally?
Keir Starmer has a Communication signal of 22/100 from GDELT media coverage.
Data coverage:107 Sourced·85 Derived|Scores refreshed: 2026-08-24·snap-20260824-c9f25cd0|Methodology:Reconstructable|Cite:How to cite
Spot an error?
Weighted average
ConfMedium
✓ Reconstructable
ⓘLegacy Rating is the completed-tenure rating derived from sourced leadership dimensions and the recorded conditions of that tenure — on the published scale a score near 60 means the country broadly matched the benchmark trajectory over the mandate. Anything unsourced shows as no data. Full weights on the Methodology page.
ⓘCrisis Exposure measures how severely a leader was tested — a peak-biased aggregate of per-year shock severity (conflict intensity, economic contraction and political-stability decline vs. recent normal) over the mandate. It is context, not a verdict: high exposure is neither good nor bad on its own. Crisis Response measures how the country fared during its genuine crisis years relative to comparable crisis episodes worldwide — country-years hit with the same shock severity. Higher = less national damage than peers at that severity. Leaders who never faced a major shock are marked Untested rather than rewarded. Per country-year, real WB/UCDP/WGI shocks are winsorised and percentile-ranked into a ShockSeverity; Exposure is the peak-biased mandate aggregate. Crisis years (severity ≥ 60) score Response = 100 − damage percentile among comparable-severity crises worldwide, then severity-weighted over the mandate. Untested = no major shock (never rewarded). Absent components are reweighted, never filled.
Politics
62
Crisis Response
—
Vision
—
Communication
22
Institutional Integrity
66
Source: World Bank + derived·Method: Contribution·✓ ReconstructableⓘEach dimension measures change under the leader relative to global trends — how the indicator moved over their tenure, net of the world's move over the same window — not the country's absolute level. A score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory; above = improved the country's standing, below = declined. Governance / Economy / Politics / Institutional Integrity from World Bank WGI, WDI and V-Dem trajectories; Vision from the country's innovation rank (WIPO patents + UNESCO tertiary), former leaders only (patents lag ~3 years); Crisis Response (World Bank + UCDP + WGI, an absolute response-quality scale) and Communication (GDELT) from tenure signals; Diplomacy (Diplomatic Conduct) is active-only. A tenure under six months, or an indicator whose series hasn't reached the term, shows as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Stewardship
Inherited-strength lens · separate from the rating
62inherited strengths improved
Governance
—
Politics
63
Integrity
61
Innovation
—
2 of 4 groups eligible and sourced
Source: World Bank WGI + V-Dem + derived·Method: Stewardship·✓ ReconstructableⓘMeasures whether strong institutions inherited at the start of the tenure were preserved, improved or eroded. It does not reward the leader for inheriting a strong country. A metric qualifies only when the inherited baseline was at least 75 on its normalized scale; the score is the world-net change over the tenure on the single public scale (60 = preserved relative to global movement). Requires two or more eligible sourced groups, the six-month tenure floor and a post-tenure-start observation — otherwise No data, never a zero. Weights mirror the current-form groups (gov 0.17 · pol 0.15 · int 0.08 · vis 0.09), renormalized over what is eligible and sourced.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Top Strengths
Key Weaknesses
Communication22
Public communication, oratory, and media presence
Economy49
Economic stewardship, growth, and macro stability
Source: Derived·Method: Ranked by stat value·✓ ReconstructableⓘUp to 5 strengths (dimensions scoring 70+) and 5 weaknesses (scoring 57 or below), ranked from the leadership radar. Dimensions in the 58–69 benchmark band appear in neither column. Descriptions are fixed per dimension and don't vary by country. Dimensions without a sourced signal show as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
ⓘ
Country scores are the unweighted average of scored World Bank indicators — the same model used on the nation's own page. Difficulty reflects structural constraints on governing this nation, independent of the current leader.
Keir Starmer Legacy Rating: 59/100 — Prime Minister, United Kingdom (2024–2026) | NationsHelm
