Every national leader, scored across up to eight dimensions of tenure contribution — from governance and economy to politics and crisis response. Compare current form against the legacy they'll leave behind.
SourceWorld Bank + derivedMethodWeighted averageConfMedium✓ ReconstructableⓘLeadership Rating measures change under the leader relative to global trends — a score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory. It is a weighted average of up to eight dimensions, renormalised over the ones with sourced data (the coverage note beside the score says how many), and requires all four core dimensions — Governance, Economy, Politics and Institutional Integrity — to be sourced. Five use live World Bank indicators; the rest are derived from sourced signals (WIPO/Oxford/UNESCO, GDELT, World Bank + UCDP, survey data) where coverage exists. Diplomacy has no source yet, and anything unsourced shows as no data. Political position is V-Dem V-Party expert coding. Full weights on the Methodology page.
A note the moment a prediction resolves — and when the record changes. Free.
Strongest on institutional integrity — sharpest weakness communication.
Briefing
The story
Mindaugas Sinkevičius, Prime Minister of Lithuania, has no composite Leadership score yet — too few dimensions have sourced data to compute one. Their standout dimension is Institutional Integrity (91/100). In global media, their Communication signal reads 36/100 (high confidence), tracked from GDELT. The pressure to watch: Communication Deficit — Communication score of 36 — a thin media footprint and unfavourable coverage weigh on its ability to build support or steer the narrative.
The data & sources
Mindaugas Sinkevičius carries no composite rating: too few dimensions have sourced data, so it renders as "No data" rather than a filled-in guess. Communication 36/100 derives from GDELT DOC tone, reach and message resilience (high confidence). Diplomatic Conduct — no country-level data; shown as "No data" rather than inferred. Governing-stability conditions score 81/100, renormalised over WGI, V-Dem and UCDP.
The risk read
For country-risk purposes, Mindaugas Sinkevičius's tenure reads as broadly stable: governing-stability conditions score 81/100. Crisis exposure 0/100 (Minimal exposure); response untested. For the full opportunity, market-pulse and resilience read, see Lithuania's nation page.
The strategic read
Governing conditions: stability 81/100. Live pressures: communication deficit and weak stability trend. The sharpest institutional vulnerability is Communication (36/100).
Communication Signal
36/ 100high confidence
Coverage tone42%45
Favourability of media coverage over the tenure (GDELT tenure-mean tone), cross-leader percentile
Media reach33%6
Media volume (GDELT tenure-median daily coverage) percentile, gated down when coverage is hostile
Message resilience25%37
Does tone / approval hold up when attention spikes vs. calmer periods (derived)
Reach is discounted to 36% of its raw percentile because tenure-mean coverage tone skews unfavourable — hostile attention isn't credited as positive reach.
Crisis
Exposure
0/ 100
Minimal exposure
Response
Untested
Untested
Low confidence · no major shock in mandate
Worst year (2026) — shock drivers
Conflict intensity0
Each is a global percentile: how this year's shock compares to every country-year on record. Disaster shocks are not yet sourced (no open-licensed annual series).
Sourced from 1 mandate-year (2026–2026), 1 of 4 shock components present.
SourceWorld Bank GDP + UCDP deaths (annual + Candidate GED) + WGI stabilityMethodCountry-year shock severity · peer-relative damage
Leadership Radar
Tenure Contribution · to date
Polarized profile — 55-point spread from Institutional Integrity to Communication.
Country scores are blended with live World Bank data where available. Difficulty reflects the structural challenge of governing this nation — not the leader's individual performance.
Source: World Bank·Method: Unweighted average·✓ Reconstructable
Leadership Archetype
No distinct archetype
Polarized profile — 55-point spread from Institutional Integrity to Communication. No archetype rule matches that shape. This is a reading of the sourced stats — not a data gap.
SourceDerivedMethodRule-based classificationConfDeterministic✓ ReconstructableⓘArchetypes are derived automatically from the leadership stat profile — not hand-assigned. "No distinct archetype" means no classification rule matched; profile shape is assessed separately from the best-to-worst spread. A leader lacking enough sourced stats reads as "No data". A secondary archetype is added only when a stat scores exceptionally high.
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Key questions
Who is Mindaugas Sinkevičius?
Mindaugas Sinkevičius is the Prime Minister of Lithuania, from the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania.
What are Mindaugas Sinkevičius's strengths and weaknesses?
Mindaugas Sinkevičius's strongest leadership dimension is Institutional Integrity (91/100); the weakest is Communication (36/100), ranked from the leadership radar.
What challenges does Mindaugas Sinkevičius face?
The main pressures are communication deficit and weak stability trend. Communication score of 36 — a thin media footprint and unfavourable coverage weigh on its ability to build support or steer the narrative.
How is Mindaugas Sinkevičius viewed internationally?
Mindaugas Sinkevičius has a Communication signal of 36/100 from GDELT media coverage.
Data coverage:107 Sourced·85 Derived|Scores refreshed: 2026-08-24·snap-20260824-c9f25cd0|Methodology:Reconstructable|Cite:How to cite
Spot an error?
SourceGDELT DOC 2.0
MethodWeighted blend (42/33/25)
ConfHigh
✓ Reconstructable
ⓘA pure media-communication signal, blended from GDELT and renormalised over what's present: Coverage Tone (42%); Media Reach (33%, gated down when coverage is hostile); and Message Resilience (25%). Domestic approval is not counted here. Shown only where GDELT coverage exists. Full model on the Methodology page.
Diplomatic Conduct
Awaiting data
No sourced diplomatic conduct yet. This proxy blends cooperative ratio, restraint, coalition breadth, agreements, sanctions balance, engagement and media tone — it populates once at least half its inputs are sourced.
ConfLow
✓ Reconstructable
ⓘCrisis Exposure measures how severely a leader was tested — a peak-biased aggregate of per-year shock severity (conflict intensity, economic contraction and political-stability decline vs. recent normal) over the mandate. It is context, not a verdict: high exposure is neither good nor bad on its own. Crisis Response measures how the country fared during its genuine crisis years relative to comparable crisis episodes worldwide — country-years hit with the same shock severity. Higher = less national damage than peers at that severity. Leaders who never faced a major shock are marked Untested rather than rewarded. Per country-year, real WB/UCDP/WGI shocks are winsorised and percentile-ranked into a ShockSeverity; Exposure is the peak-biased mandate aggregate. Crisis years (severity ≥ 60) score Response = 100 − damage percentile among comparable-severity crises worldwide, then severity-weighted over the mandate. Untested = no major shock (never rewarded). Absent components are reweighted, never filled.
Politics
—
Crisis Response
—
Vision
67
Communication
36
Institutional Integrity
91
Source: World Bank + derived·Method: Contribution·✓ ReconstructableⓘEach dimension measures change under the leader relative to global trends — how the indicator moved over their tenure, net of the world's move over the same window — not the country's absolute level. A score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory; above = improved the country's standing, below = declined. Governance / Economy / Politics / Institutional Integrity from World Bank WGI, WDI and V-Dem trajectories; Vision from the country's innovation rank (WIPO patents + UNESCO tertiary), former leaders only (patents lag ~3 years); Crisis Response (World Bank + UCDP + WGI, an absolute response-quality scale) and Communication (GDELT) from tenure signals; Diplomacy (Diplomatic Conduct) is active-only. A tenure under six months, or an indicator whose series hasn't reached the term, shows as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Stewardship
Inherited-strength lens · separate from the rating
—
Governance
—
Politics
—
Integrity
—
Innovation
—
0 of 4 groups eligible and sourced
Source: World Bank WGI + V-Dem + derived·Method: Stewardship·✓ ReconstructableⓘMeasures whether strong institutions inherited at the start of the tenure were preserved, improved or eroded. It does not reward the leader for inheriting a strong country. A metric qualifies only when the inherited baseline was at least 75 on its normalized scale; the score is the world-net change over the tenure on the single public scale (60 = preserved relative to global movement). Requires two or more eligible sourced groups, the six-month tenure floor and a post-tenure-start observation — otherwise No data, never a zero. Weights mirror the current-form groups (gov 0.17 · pol 0.15 · int 0.08 · vis 0.09), renormalized over what is eligible and sourced.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Top Strengths
Institutional Integrity91
Perceived transparency and anti-corruption track record
Key Weaknesses
Communication36
Public communication, oratory, and media presence
Source: Derived·Method: Ranked by stat value·✓ ReconstructableⓘUp to 5 strengths (dimensions scoring 70+) and 5 weaknesses (scoring 57 or below), ranked from the leadership radar. Dimensions in the 58–69 benchmark band appear in neither column. Descriptions are fixed per dimension and don't vary by country. Dimensions without a sourced signal show as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Current Challenges
Communication Deficithigh
Communication score of 36 — a thin media footprint and unfavourable coverage weigh on its ability to build support or steer the narrative.
Weak Stability Trendmedium
Stability Trend of 47 indicates that the recent direction is a material pressure even when the broader stability level remains stronger.
Source: Derived·Method: Rule-based·✓ ReconstructableⓘFlags challenges when a sourced dimension falls below the published benchmark band: any leadership dimension < 58 (severe < 48), Stability < 50, Crisis Exposure > 60, or regime continuity/legitimacy < 40 — plus an adverse Stability Trend, adverse External Conditions, or Severely Constrained / Extreme domestic context. Economy derives from World Bank indicators; Institutional Integrity from V-Dem's executive-corruption index (World Bank Control of Corruption as fallback); Communication from GDELT media reach, tone and resilience; Crisis Exposure and continuity from the stability blend. A low Communication signal can mean thin coverage OR wide-but-hostile coverage — the flag distinguishes the two.
ⓘ
Country scores are the unweighted average of scored World Bank indicators — the same model used on the nation's own page. Difficulty reflects structural constraints on governing this nation, independent of the current leader.
Mindaugas Sinkevičius — Prime Minister, Lithuania (2026–present) | NationsHelm
Leadership Conditions
Government Stability
81
Low political violence · Legitimate transfers of power · Politically stable
External Conditions
—
No World Bank data for this tenure period.
Stability breakdown
Political stability33%82
WGI Political Stability & Absence of Violence
Institutional strength22%74
WGI Rule of Law, Government Effectiveness & Control of Corruption
Continuity & legitimacy17%91
V-Dem political continuity and regime legitimacy
Violence & safety17%100
UCDP organized-violence deaths, population-scaled and inverted — prefers the fresh current-year UCDP-CED reading, else the finalized annual GED
Stability trend11%47
3-year direction of the WGI stability score
Time in Office 2 months·Since 2026-06
Source: WGI · V-Dem · UCDP · trend·Method: Weighted blend·✓ ReconstructableⓘGovernment Stability blends six sourced signals, renormalised over what's available: WGI Political Stability (30%), institutional strength (20%), V-Dem continuity (15%), UCDP violence deaths (current-year UCDP-CED where available, else finalized annual GED, 15%), Fragile States social cohesion (10%) and the 3-year WGI trend (10%). External Conditions derives from a World Bank GDP-growth shock over the tenure.