Every national leader, scored across up to eight dimensions of tenure contribution — from governance and economy to politics and crisis response. Compare current form against the legacy they'll leave behind.
Donald Trump, President of the United States, has no composite Leadership score yet — too few dimensions have sourced data to compute one. Their standout dimension is Institutional Integrity (96/100).
The data & sources
Donald Trump carries no composite rating: too few dimensions have sourced data, so it renders as "No data" rather than a filled-in guess. Diplomatic Conduct 80/100 (medium confidence) — performance-under-test blend from directed GDELT events + UCDP. Governing-stability conditions score 74/100, renormalised over WGI, V-Dem and UCDP.
The risk read
For country-risk purposes, Donald Trump's tenure reads as broadly stable: governing-stability conditions score 74/100. Crisis exposure 3/100 (Minimal exposure); response untested. For the full opportunity, market-pulse and resilience read, see the United States' nation page.
The strategic read
Governing conditions: stability 74/100.
Analyst OutlookAI · not a sourced score
claude-opus-4-8 · 2026-07-08
Cited, adversarially-verified forward analysis — every claim is sourced and survived a red-team. An LLM intelligence brief, not a sourced score, and never blended into this leader's ratings.
Trump's second term will be remembered not for a policy but for a toolkit: tariffs by decree, maps redrawn mid-decade, a bureaucracy staffed to obey, and courts treated as optional. He is term-limited — the precedents he built are not, and that is the only part of his ceiling that compounds.
The Consensus
The prevailing pundit read (July 2026): Trump is a spent, term-limited lame duck in visible decline. Approval in the mid-30s (FiftyPlusOne 37.0%; Pew 34%); the economy is his open wound (20% on inflation); the Supreme Court struck down his signature IEEPA tariff program 6-3; the base is fracturing over the Epstein files; the "No Kings" protests were the largest single-day mobilization in US history (8–9M); and history says his party loses ~37 House seats in November. The story is entropy, with Vance already the clear 2028 frontrunner. All anchors verified against ≥2 independent dated sources.
Through 2026-11 (legacy tail excluded from the score)
The One Big Beautiful Bill's Medicaid/SNAP phase-ins become a top-two Democratic attack of 2026 and a measurable drag — Trump's healthcare/economy approval stays sub-40% through the midterms. (Legacy tail — the bill's unpopularity outliving him as THE defining domestic-policy liability of his second term — is retained as commentary but flagged non-scorable/unfalsifiable; 'defining liability' has no metric or kill line.)
AI · not a sourced score · claude-opus-4-8 · 5 cited sources · red-teamed · never blended into ratings
Wrong if Trump's economy-or-healthcare approval averages ≥40% in the month before the 2026 election, or if Democrats do not center OBBB in national midterm messaging. by 2026-11
Confidence66%
Show the caseHide the case
Strongest counter — Most cuts phase in after 2026, blunting immediate salience; a strong economy could drown out the healthcare message. Near-term core is well-supported (economy/healthcare approval already sub-40% across pollsters) and falsifiable; the legacy 'defining liability' tail is horoscope-shaped and stripped from the score. Uninsured figure corrected from '17M' to ~10M CBO. Recalibrated to 0.66.
No sourced communication signal yet. This blends GDELT coverage tone, media reach and message resilience — it populates once GDELT indexes enough coverage of this leader.
Diplomatic Conduct
80/ 100100% sourced · severity 34
Conduct 72 · Test Severity 34 → 80
Cooperative ratio20%76
Share of the country's international interactions coded cooperative vs conflictual
Restraint20%10
Inverse of net material force the country projects — armed-conflict events it initiates minus those it absorbs. Force projected abroad lowers it; being invaded does not
Coalition breadth15%100
Crisis
Exposure
3/ 100
Minimal exposure
Response
Untested
Untested
Low confidence · no major shock in mandate
Worst year (2025) — shock drivers
Conflict intensity0
Economic contraction10
Each is a global percentile: how this year's shock compares to every country-year on record. Disaster shocks are not yet sourced (no open-licensed annual series).
Sourced from 2 mandate-years (2025–2026), 2 of 4 shock components present.
SourceWorld Bank GDP + UCDP deaths (annual + Candidate GED) + WGI stability
Leadership Radar
Tenure Contribution · to date
Balanced profile — 16-point spread from Institutional Integrity to Diplomacy.
Country scores are blended with live World Bank data where available. Difficulty reflects the structural challenge of governing this nation — not the leader's individual performance.
Source: World Bank·Method: Unweighted average·✓ Reconstructable
Leadership Archetype
Awaiting data
No archetype yet — not enough sourced stats to classify one. The archetype is derived from the leadership stat profile; it populates once enough dimensions are sourced.
Compare this leader
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Key questions
Who is Donald Trump?
Donald Trump is the President of the United States, from the Republican Party.
How is Donald Trump viewed internationally?
Donald Trump has a Diplomatic Conduct score of 80/100.
Data coverage:110 Sourced·82 Derived|Scores refreshed: 2026-08-16·snap-20260816-15cf102d|Methodology:Reconstructable|Cite:How to cite
Spot an error?
✓ Reconstructable
ⓘLeadership Rating measures change under the leader relative to global trends — a score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory. It is a weighted average of up to eight dimensions, renormalised over the ones with sourced data (the coverage note beside the score says how many), and requires all four core dimensions — Governance, Economy, Politics and Institutional Integrity — to be sourced. Five use live World Bank indicators; the rest are derived from sourced signals (WIPO/Oxford/UNESCO, GDELT, World Bank + UCDP, survey data) where coverage exists. Diplomacy is a GDELT-derived engagement proxy, and anything unsourced shows as no data. Political position is V-Dem V-Party expert coding. Full weights on the Methodology page.
How many distinct countries it cooperates with as initiator
Agreements & mediation15%100
Mediating, negotiating and signing formal agreements as initiator (GDELT CAMEO)
Sanctions balance10%100
Sanctions the country imposes minus those imposed on it
Engagement volume10%100
Count of international diplomatic events — country-level
Media tone10%50
Favourability of foreign coverage of the leader on diplomacy — leader-level, low-weighted
SourceGDELT 2.1 Events + DOC APIMethodPerformance-under-test blend, severity-amplifiedConfMedium✓ ReconstructableⓘHow a head of state conducts themselves on the world stage, not how much activity their country generates. Blends cooperative ratio (20%), Restraint (inverse of net force projected, 20%), coalition breadth (15%), agreements & mediation (15%), sanctions balance (10%), engagement (10%) and leader media tone (10%), renormalised over available data. Test Severity (active conflict + conflictual share + sanctions received) amplifies the blend so conduct under fire moves the score more. Full model on the Methodology page.
ⓘCrisis Exposure measures how severely a leader was tested — a peak-biased aggregate of per-year shock severity (conflict intensity, economic contraction and political-stability decline vs. recent normal) over the mandate. It is context, not a verdict: high exposure is neither good nor bad on its own. Crisis Response measures how the country fared during its genuine crisis years relative to comparable crisis episodes worldwide — country-years hit with the same shock severity. Higher = less national damage than peers at that severity. Leaders who never faced a major shock are marked Untested rather than rewarded. Per country-year, real WB/UCDP/WGI shocks are winsorised and percentile-ranked into a ShockSeverity; Exposure is the peak-biased mandate aggregate. Crisis years (severity ≥ 60) score Response = 100 − damage percentile among comparable-severity crises worldwide, then severity-weighted over the mandate. Untested = no major shock (never rewarded). Absent components are reweighted, never filled.
Politics
—
Crisis Response
—
Vision
—
Communication
—
Institutional Integrity
96
Source: World Bank + derived·Method: Contribution·✓ ReconstructableⓘEach dimension measures change under the leader relative to global trends — how the indicator moved over their tenure, net of the world's move over the same window — not the country's absolute level. A score near 60 means performance broadly matched the benchmark trajectory; above = improved the country's standing, below = declined. Governance / Economy / Politics / Institutional Integrity from World Bank WGI, WDI and V-Dem trajectories; Vision from the country's innovation rank (WIPO patents + UNESCO tertiary), former leaders only (patents lag ~3 years); Crisis Response (World Bank + UCDP + WGI, an absolute response-quality scale) and Communication (GDELT) from tenure signals; Diplomacy (Diplomatic Conduct) is active-only. A tenure under six months, or an indicator whose series hasn't reached the term, shows as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Stewardship
Inherited-strength lens · separate from the rating
—
Governance
—
Politics
—
Integrity
—
Innovation
—
0 of 4 groups eligible and sourced
Source: World Bank WGI + V-Dem + derived·Method: Stewardship·✓ ReconstructableⓘMeasures whether strong institutions inherited at the start of the tenure were preserved, improved or eroded. It does not reward the leader for inheriting a strong country. A metric qualifies only when the inherited baseline was at least 75 on its normalized scale; the score is the world-net change over the tenure on the single public scale (60 = preserved relative to global movement). Requires two or more eligible sourced groups, the six-month tenure floor and a post-tenure-start observation — otherwise No data, never a zero. Weights mirror the current-form groups (gov 0.17 · pol 0.15 · int 0.08 · vis 0.09), renormalized over what is eligible and sourced.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Top Strengths
Institutional Integrity96
Perceived transparency and anti-corruption track record
Diplomacy80
International relations and multilateral negotiation
Key Weaknesses
Source: Derived·Method: Ranked by stat value·✓ ReconstructableⓘUp to 5 strengths (dimensions scoring 70+) and 5 weaknesses (scoring 57 or below), ranked from the leadership radar. Dimensions in the 58–69 benchmark band appear in neither column. Descriptions are fixed per dimension and don't vary by country. Dimensions without a sourced signal show as no data. Full model on the Methodology page.
Current Challenges
Awaiting data
No flagged challenges — no key dimension is below its threshold, or the sourced indicators that drive these flags aren't in yet.
Leadership Conditions
Government Stability
74
Low political violence · Legitimate transfers of power · Strong institutions
External Conditions
—
No World Bank data for this tenure period.
Stability breakdown
Political stability33%64
WGI Political Stability & Absence of Violence
Institutional strength22%74
WGI Rule of Law, Government Effectiveness & Control of Corruption
ⓘ
Country scores are the unweighted average of scored World Bank indicators — the same model used on the nation's own page. Difficulty reflects structural constraints on governing this nation, independent of the current leader.
Continuity & legitimacy17%84
V-Dem political continuity and regime legitimacy
Violence & safety17%100
UCDP organized-violence deaths, population-scaled and inverted — prefers the fresh current-year UCDP-CED reading, else the finalized annual GED
Stability trend11%51
3-year direction of the WGI stability score
Time in Office 19 months·Since 2025-01
Donald Trump — President, United States (2025–present) | NationsHelm
Source: WGI · V-Dem · UCDP · trend·Method: Weighted blend·✓ ReconstructableⓘGovernment Stability blends six sourced signals, renormalised over what's available: WGI Political Stability (30%), institutional strength (20%), V-Dem continuity (15%), UCDP violence deaths (current-year UCDP-CED where available, else finalized annual GED, 15%), Fragile States social cohesion (10%) and the 3-year WGI trend (10%). External Conditions derives from a World Bank GDP-growth shock over the tenure.
