Putin's approval stays below its pre-war baseline through the Sept 20, 2026 Duma vote, and the Kremlin answers with repression, not concessions — United Russia keeps its constitutional majority by administrative control, not genuine support.
AI · not a sourced score · claude-opus-4-8 · 5 cited sources · red-teamed · never blended into ratings
Wrong if approval is sustainably above 82% AND there is net loosening of internet controls before the vote. by 2026-09-20
Confidence80%
Show the caseHide the case
Strongest counter — Rate cuts (key rate 14.25%) plus a fuel-supply fix could restore ratings by September.
Meduza — FOM approval at 73% (May), lowest since the invasio… (2026-05-01)Moscow Times/VTsIOM — sharpest single-week wartime drop in l… (2026-07-03)Meduza — Russia was expected to block Telegram in April; it … (2026-03-17)zona.media — Russian internet censorship 2026 (FSB granted p… (2026-04-07)Meduza — Russia's State Duma elections set for September 20,… (2026-06-16)